Kellogg Labels Russian Military Campaign a Failure
(WASHINGTON, DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA) – Keith Kellogg, the former United States special envoy for Ukraine, has characterised the Russian military campaign as a strategic failure following his departure from the Trump administration. In a detailed discussion regarding the conflict’s trajectory, Kellogg noted that the Russian dictator, Vladimir Putin, has failed to achieve primary objectives, including the capture of Kyiv and Odesa, or securing a crossing of the Dnipro River. Kellogg argued that despite the Russian dictator’s public assertions of victory, the reality on the ground reflects a stalled invasion that has only managed to seize one per cent more territory than was held four years ago.
Following his transition to the America First Policy Institute in early January, Kellogg dismissed rumours that his exit was prompted by internal friction or policy disagreements with Donald Trump. He attributed his departure to administrative timing, noting that special envoys typically face a confirmation process after one year. By moving to a think tank, Kellogg stated he gained the freedom to speak more openly about the war. He also clarified his previous role, explaining that he worked almost exclusively with Ukrainian officials while a separate envoy, Steve Wood, handled communications with Moscow due to existing business relationships with Russian figures like Kirill Dmitriev.
Addressing key diplomatic events, Kellogg defended the February 2025 meeting between the Russian dictator and Donald Trump in Alaska. He asserted that maintaining open lines of communication is essential for any world leader, contrasting the approach with the previous administration’s lack of direct engagement.
Kellogg revealed that the subsequent meeting between Donald Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office became strained only after the arrival of the press, maintaining that the initial bilateral talks were cordial. However, scepticism remains regarding whether these high level meetings have yielded any substantive concessions from the Kremlin.
Kellogg suggested that the conflict has reached a point of exhaustion for Moscow, citing the “catastrophic” cost in personnel, equipment, and fuel. He estimated that as the winter concludes, the tactical advantage will shift toward Ukraine. On the matter of territorial disputes, particularly in Donetsk, Kellogg proposed a “Wells Doctrine” approach.
This would involve refusing to legally recognise Russian land grabs while acknowledging the de facto reality on the ground, similar to the Western stance on the Baltic states during the Soviet era. He concluded that the Russian dictator must eventually be made to realise that his goal of absorbing Ukraine into a new Russian empire is unattainable.